We’re only one month into 2015 and the boat has already begun to rock: At every level, provincial, national and international, this year promises to be a rollercoaster ride and we, the citizens, the electorate, laymen will have to be on our guard while making decisions of every kind: personal, social, political and financial.
In the province, Premier Jim Prentice has announced his candidates in many ridings for what is believed to be a spring election, and promised a “Super Saturday” for Feb. 21, when there will be balloting in a lot of ridings involving party membership to identify who will stand as PC candidates in that election. Our Ponoka-Lacombe riding could be on that list, but we have yet to hear confirmation of that. There is one disturbing element in the rush by so many hopefuls to run in the elections as PC candidates: The candidates must have gotten the wind that Prentice will be marching to another landslide PC victory and it seems they all want a share of the pie as “yes men” for his legislative initiatives in his next term. We may very well be in for some very firm austerity, including new or increased taxes while democratic opposition could be drowned in silence.
Nationally, the resignation of John Baird as foreign minister and the ensuing government reshuffle have laid bare one significant detail: Prime minister Harper may be realizing that it is increasingly difficult to find close confidants to rely on as the time for the national election approaches. The fact that he has assigned additional portfolios to Jason Kenney (defense in addition to his current portfolio of multiculturalism) and Pierre Poilievre (keeping his current portfolio as minister for democratic reform and taking over the employment and social development functions from Kenney and the role of head of the National Capital Commission vacated by Baird) indicates that there are fewer strong backers of his policies in his inner circle. In addition, the desertion to the Liberal Party of Conservative MP Eve Adams, described by a CBC reporter as the “attack dog” for Harper, after describing her former boss a “mean-spirited leader” does not augur well for the prime minister. (The fact that Mr. Trudeau has accepted Ms. Adams to his caucus with open arms is a shameful episode must be the subject of another editorial.) It looks highly likely that, given declining oil prices, uncertainty of budget revenues and the appointment of highly vocal Jason Kenney to the defense portfolio. Mr. Harper will ramp up conservatism significantly in the next election campaign, beating nationalistic/militarist drums to maintain support from the conservative electorate.
Internationally, on the politico/military front, more intensified clashes in eastern Ukraine and ensuing appeals from Republicans in the US to arm the Ukrainian military; failure of the anti-ISIS alliance to deal meaningful blows to force the extremists to withdraw from their entrenched positions; increasing social instability throughout the Middle East (the coup in Yemen and the soccer unrest in Egypt causing the deaths of 22 fans) all signal tumultuous weeks and months ahead, which could suck Canadian military deeper into the quagmire if the prime minister continues to hope to garner votes by supposedly raising the international profile of our country.
On the economic front, Basel-based Bank of International Settlements, better known as “central bank of all central banks” has just released one if its rare public reports warning that the highly leveraged oil industry would see lots of defaults and bankruptcies in 2015, leading to further unemployment at least in Canada. With its price failing to climb, oil will continue to be pumped by profit-hungry companies just to keep their cash-flow going, putting further pressure on the price as demand dwindles with spring approaching and the second biggest economy in the world showing signs of faltering growth. In addition, rapidly rising exchange rate of US dollar will make it impossible for many developing nations to service their debts, further contributing to a slowing down global growth and possibly paving the way for another recession, even depression.
Hold on tight, the rollercoaster ride is on.
– Mustafa Eric