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Harper's chances in the next election

Prime Minister Stephen Harper has been deserted again, this time by his most important ally in his political journey.

Prime Minister Stephen Harper has been deserted yet again, but this time by his most important ally in his political journey, actually the man who made him the prime minister by agreeing to play the second fiddle to him about a decade ago.

Is Justice Minister Peter Mackay's announcement that he is leaving politics any indication of the fate the Conservative Party is likely to face in the October general election?

If one follows the track of junior and senior officials who have been abandoning ship since the beginning of the year, it becomes obvious that Harper's political camp has been losing blood, seriously and at an increasing pace.

A realistic politician should be able to assess such circumstances and take the rational decision and quit when the time is right.

If one takes a look at the political horizon, it is not easy to see any bright sunshine falling on Mr. Harper's fortunes until October.

Suspended Senator Mike Duffy's trial is certain to drag on well into August and it is the later stages of that process which is expected to shed some light on the prime minister's involvement in covering up the expense scandal.

On the economic front, there does not seem to be any hope of a quick rise in the oil prices and latest statistics have just shown that the national economy contracted in the first quarter; unless there is some strong stimulation coming from our southern neighbour where growth is also quite shaky, unemployment could well rise in the coming months. His evidently poor personal relationship with US President Barack Obama is certainly not going to help him in the run up to the election campaign to get some hopeful signs that the long delayed Keystone XL might see the light of the day.

On foreign policy front, the news is not good, either: Where Mr. Harper had planned to beat the nationalistic drums based on the successful involvement of the Canadian military personnel, adversaries keep gaining ground. ISIS has recently expanded the area under its control and justifiable questions are being asked as to whether the Canadian military could be sucked into a long conflict. In Ukraine, the stalemate on the ground is continuing to favor the Russian-backed insurgents.

On the environment, the prime minister keeps trying to turn the wheel backwards by distancing Canada further from the goals universally agreed to maintain the health of the planet.

On top of all of these, scandal after scandal revealing mismanagement of taxpayers' money in projects that have never taken off the ground, the latest one being the $300 million housing project for First Nations having created only 99 accommodation units in six years, are not helping Harper, either.

Under these circumstances, there is only one factor that could be working for the Conservative leader's benefit: That he will be the only leader vying for the vote of the right wing electorate while centre and left vote will be divided between the Liberals and the NDP, possibly depriving both of them from securing a majority to form a government.

But this calculation is hardly a basis for a campaign to win an election. As we have seen in Alberta, taking the electorate for granted has cost the PCs dearly in the provincial ballot box.

So despite all these negative factors, why is Mr. Harper desperately fighting to continue to occupy his office?

Is it only because he "likes his job" as he disclosed in a recent CBC interview? Or is he on a mission to do more work for corporate interests, mainly big oil, for instance seeing to it that Keystone pipeline breaks ground?

The answer is difficult to know, but one could only hope that the prime minister will not get more adventurous with bolder national and international moves just for the sake of winning the next election.