One notes a recent news item that stated in 2016 the net world population expansion is expected to increase by 60 million – that's almost twice the population of Canada. To the world agriculture sector that means millions more mouths to feed – mostly in areas that already can't feed themselves. Luckily commercial agriculture is once again able to accommodate all of that demand, despite hurdles (many self-inflicted) that third-world governments and green lobby groups nefariously create to thwart food production. But that's another story.
What remains amazing and fascinating is the relentless drive towards more automation and precision in commercial agriculture production and processing at so many levels to increase food production. That drive which is essentially over a hundred years old has increased significantly over the past 30 years is positive but has had some repercussions. The scale and cost of that automation has seen a need to ever more consolidation into much larger production operations. For instance, equipment manufacturers tend to focus on developing technologies that increase efficiencies and precision both, are very costly leading to tractors that can cost over a quarter of a million dollars and combines that are starting to hit the half million dollar cost. To justify such costs it takes at least a five to 10,000-acre operation. And its relentless – production and harvesting technology research now seems to be directed towards automation with robots and remote control. Autonomous remotely controlled seeding equipment through robot tractors already exist with manufacturers fine tuning this new generation farm machinery. One does ponder whether there will be a tipping point as to the size and scale to accommodate automation and cost. For instance, is a 25,000-acre going to be needed to justify the new technology?
The drive to consolidation in livestock production through automation and technology also continues particularly in the USA. Operations with a million laying hens, 10,000 sows and even a whopping 20,000 milking cows actually exist down south. The only thing preventing such mega-livestock operations in dairy and poultry in Canada are size restrictions by marketing boards. It's actually conceivable that two monster dairy operations could provide all the milk demand in Alberta. Even in the primary cow/calf business, which seems at times resistant to consolidation and automation has seen economic size expand from 200 breeding cows to well over 500 heads. But even that is changing with automated handling for vaccinating, branding, pregnancy testing and other husbandry practices already beyond the concept stage. The dairy industry now has sophisticated robot milking systems – so many things are now possible to reduce time and labour costs.
Modern commercial ag production and technology will continue its relentless progressive march as long as the market can adjust and take advantage of new development. But the gap with traditional and non-progressive agriculture will also continue to grow and therein lies the dilemma. Vast millions continue to toil in subsistence agriculture in undeveloped and third world parts of planet – more for social and cultural reasons than economic and efficiencies. That does not have a lot of hope to change being – what does one do with the millions that would be displaced if agriculture in much of Africa was commercialized and consolidated to the extent it has in North America. History and the market would note that change – for instance around 100 years ago half the population of North America was involved in direct agriculture – today less than 5 per cent of the population is involved. That 5 per cent not only provide food for the other 95 per cent but also supply food aid to the rest of the world. In a curious sort of way commercial agriculture in North America actually supports the continuation of subsistence agriculture in much of the world. Food aid from the western world prevents mass starvation in many parts of Africa, but that discourages local production and encourages duplicitous governments to not implement progressive ag production policies. It also allows for millions of acres in Africa to be used for flower production and exotic organic crops for premium markets in Europe rather than local food production. Sure its complicated – but also very devious.
What is clear is that two very different production sectors exist in the world today – a modern commercial sector that feeds most of the world and a very large subsistence sector that is becoming increasingly a hindrance to feeding even itself. Let's hope automation and technology in commercial agriculture can stay one step ahead of what could become a very desperate situation.