Drawing (unnecesary) Attention

Grains continue to trade a bit sideways to higher as buyers went out into the market to find some supply.

Grains continue to trade a bit sideways to higher as buyers went out into the market to find some supply with “let’s bring some stuff in” because pulling back a bit. The oilseed complex is being supported by solid US soybean sales and oil prices heading higher this morning. With some firming basis across the border in the U.S., end-users may rather wait for supplies to come to them this winter, versus going out and chasing it. The only real exciting attention being seen is in the pulse markets as laird (large green) lentils recently hit 50 cents/lbs, with small reds eclipsing the 43 cents/lbs mark.

While we finished up harvest in North America, our fellow farmers on the other side of the equator are just getting going. Drier conditions have slowed seeding but because soybean prices are pretty solid right now thanks to a devalued Brazilian Real, over 80 million acres are forecasted to be planted, putting 2015/16 production over 100 million tonnes. From a trading standpoint, and as the USDA sees it, “stronger competition may lead to farm less dynamic demand” of US supply. What does this all mean for canola? Well, near the end of October, canola was currently sitting at an 11 per cent premium above soybean prices (or $~37.50 USD/MT or $48.50 CAD/MT). Canola and soybeans will continue to trek together and if you see soybeans move lower, canola, at least on the futures board, will likely do the same. Where you may see the biggest change though is on the basis side of things.

U.S. government weather forecasters are calling the beginning of El Nino effects on North American weather with the northern half expected to see drier/milder winter conditions, while the south is getting wet.

The rains will be helpful for U.S. winter wheat areas, which continue to be dry, albeit not as bad as the past couple of years. Canada, (clearly part of that northern half of North America) is possibly going to see one of its warmest winters on record, according to AccuWeather. Comparably, in some parts of Russia, a lack of rain for many weeks is leading to ground so hard that it’s breaking farm equipment. With less winter wheat acres than originally planned going into the ground in both Ukraine and Russia, a mild winter and good spring rains will be needed to save the crop. That being said, one could look to a poor fall and a harsh winter in 2010 that pushed Russia’s wheat production down to just 41.5 million tonnes (they took off more than 60 million tonnes this year). Accordingly, wheat prices rallied in mid-late 2011 almost 50 per cent but keep in mind, there is still a large global supply available, compared to those years.

More obvious, the biggest news affecting Canadian growers recently was the Liberal party winning a majority government. While there doesn’t look like to be too many changes that affect the ag industry under another Trudeau government, there are some programs (i.e. Growing Forward 2) that are set to expire, but a big concern is where transportation standards and infrastructure are at and if the conversation will continue despite there not being any issues today. Net-net, while attention is necessary for the change to a Liberal majority, unnecessarily negative commentary would be unjust as they shouldn’t make the Canadian agriculture industry any worse or better off (relatively) than it is today.

To growth,

Brennan TurnerPresident and CEO FarmLead.com

Brennan Turner is originally from Foam Lake, Sask., where his family started farming the land in the 1920s. After completing his degree in economics from Yale University and then playing some pro hockey, Mr. Turner spent some time working in finance before starting FarmLead.com, a risk-free, transparent online and now mobile grain marketplace (app available for iOS and Android). His weekly column is a summary of his free, daily market note, the FarmLead Breakfast Brief. He can be reached via email (b.turner@farmlead.com) or phone (1-855-332-7653).

Just Posted

Alberta judge cleared in case where sex assault victim was shackled, jailed

Judicial council: Judge Raymond Bodnarek acted on Crown’s advice, tried to minimize victim’s hardship

Stettler Elementary getting school clubs up and running

Stettler Elementary Grade 4’s get to check out Smith’s igloo

Big Valley – A community to be thankful for

Big Valley blessed with choirs of ‘snow angels’

Judicial council finds no misconduct by Alberta judge of Aboriginal sex assault victim

Hearing after complaints of alleged poor treatment of woman with pseudonym Angela Cardinal

A Look Back – Stettler Independent Archive Files

Originally Submitted By: Margaret Connon and Mary-Jane Jackson Updated By: Landin Chambers

WATCH: Red Deer celebrates one year out from 2019 Canada Games

Community gathers at Great Chief Park to commemorate Games milestone

How to keep local news visible in your Facebook feed

Facebook has changed the news feed to emphasize personal connections. You might see less news.

Concert-goers unfazed by Hedley sexual misconduct allegations

Frontman Jacob Hoggard thanked fans from the ‘bottom of our hearts’ at Halifax’s Scotiabank Centre

OLYMPICS 101: Oldest and youngest Canadians to reach the podium

This year, Canada sent its most athletes in Winter Games history, here’s a look at record breakers

Federal budget to unveil incentive for 5-week second parent leave: official

Goal behind the measure is to give parents more incentive to share child-rearing responsibilities

Notley says Alberta watching B.C. court bid closely, will get no free ride on it

Alberta Premier Rachel Notley ended the three-week ban on B.C. wine, calming the trade war

Trudeau ends troubled India trip in his comfort zone of hockey and youth

The players, 18-25, came to New Delhi from Ladakhi in northern India, as part of outreach program

Team Canada’s Dave Duncan apologizes after drunken joyride in Pyeongchang

Duncan, his wife Maja and Canadian technical coach William Raine detained by South Korean police

Stettler Regional Board of Trade announces 2018 Board of Directors

Matt Wall will serve as President for a second year

Most Read

Weekly delivery plus unlimited digital access for $50.40 for 52 issues (must live within 95 kilometers of Stettler) Unlimited Digital Access for one year for $50.40 Prefer to have us call you? Click here and we’ll get back to you within one business day.